Management Summary Research Study „Periods of Uncertainty Are Linked to Greater Acceptance of Minorities“

This study explores how uncertainty in society – such as that caused by political crises, economic instability, or pandemics – affects people’s attitudes toward minority groups, specifically Muslims and Jews. Using survey responses from over 227,000 individuals across 56 countries between 1990 and 2020, the authors find that when uncertainty is high, people tend to show greater acceptance of these groups. The analysis links each person’s answers to the level of uncertainty in their country at the time of the interview, measured by how often the word “uncertain” appears in country reports by the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Perhaps surprisingly, the study finds that people are more tolerant of minorities during uncertain times. Rather than turning inward, many seem more open and cooperative when facing shared challenges. This pattern is most pronounced in countries with strong institutions and free media. The effect also extends, though less strongly, to other minorities like gay people and Roma. These findings suggest that uncertainty, while often viewed negatively, can also encourage social unity. For policymakers, it highlights that even in turbulent times, there may be opportunities to strengthen inclusion – especially in societies that protect openness and free expression.

Target groups of stakeholders: This research is particularly relevant for a broad audience that includes scholars in the social sciences, policymakers working on integration and social cohesion, international organizations and NGOs focused on minority rights and crisis response, media outlets and think tanks engaged in public discourse, as well as educators and civic education platforms.

Citation: Berggren, N., Bergh, A., & Nilsson, T. (2025). Periods of uncertainty are linked to greater acceptance of minorities. Journal of Comparative Economics. Forthcoming.

Source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2025.05.001 (open access).